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Is Assad being rational?

September 5, 2013   ·   2 Comments

Assad

Yes he is. When it was reported that chemical weapons were used a couple of months ago, the international community did nothing since there was no UN investigation. Eventually, Assad decided to allow the UN investigative team to check out the scenes where chemical weapons were supposedly used. When the UN team came in, they were met with sniper fire (luckily, nobody was hurt).

Assad blamed the rebel “terrorists” for the shots but why would they fire at the UN team? The rebels blamed the Assad regime. On that note, is there any way that the team could even identify who used the chemical weapons? If both sides of the conflict are blaming the other, they should want the UN team to come in so they can prove themselves right.

My opinion is that Assad used the chemicals on the Syrian rebels.  The Syrian president was the one who delayed the UN investigative team from looking into the past reports of chemical weapons’ use. Why would he do that unless he had something to hide? Have the Syrian rebels ever denied the UN team from looking into the allegations? No they haven’t.

As I’ve stated in past articles, the opposition fighters have not delayed the investigation because they did not use the chemical weapons. There is no possible way that the rebels could stage the foaming of the mouth and the convulsions that have been posted on Youtube. If the UN investigative team found out about this, there is a chance that the international community would not support the rebels.

Assad is being rational because he knows that the US and its allies do not want to intervene in Syria. He is aware that his loss of power would create a power vacuum in Syria that could seriously affect most of the Middle East. Al-Nusra will use Syria as a safe haven and so will other terrorist groups. Al-Nusra would check out the region before inviting Al-Qaeda over to join the party. Terrorists will plan terrorist plots. Embassies could be bombed and people will be killed. Assad also knows that a US intervention in Syria would cost around 100,000 troops to move into the country. The US would have to almost demolish Assad’s air defense systems and even if they did, Syria would still be able to continue its campaign of terror.

Assad is acting rationally. Granted he might not be as intimidated by the international community as he should be – but c’mon, the community hasn’t given him to. Indeed, he has also acted this way because Russia and Iran are backing him. If the US intervenes in Syria, this will raise tensions between the US and Russia and Iran. This is a game of chicken between the US and Syria.

Photo credit: Pan African news wire file photos via flickr

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Amanda E. Taurino is a journalist that researches and writes on Middle East studies, conflict and conflict resolution, and human security issues. She has earned a MA in International Affairs from GWU's Elliott School of International affairs. During this time, she gained experience working with think tanks and government institutions. She also has a BA in Political Science and English from Temple University.

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4 comments
darcher
darcher

This may be one of the most incompetent news articles I've ever read. 

DCRothman
DCRothman

@darcher This may be one of the most useless comments I've ever read.

darcher
darcher

@DCRothman @darcher I'm sorry your girlfriend sucks at writing bro, but this article is seriously incoherent.